Carlos Rodón was the second pitcher on my offseason free agent rankings, behind only Jacob deGrom, with whom he shares both a high ceiling and a long history of injuries. Rodón ended up landing six years, $162 million from the Yankees, in a deal that seems to bet on him staying healthy — something he hasn’t really done for two consecutive years since he debuted in 2015-16.
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Rodón was one of the best pitchers in the National League last year, setting career highs with 178 innings, 31 starts and 237 strikeouts. He was worth 5.4 rWAR/6.2 fWAR, on the heels of a 5.2/4.9 season the year before in just 132 2/3 innings. He led all NL pitchers in FIP, ranking second in strikeouts and sixth in ERA, thanks to a four-seamer that was one of the most effective pitches of its type in all of baseball last year. It’s a high-spin four-seamer that he rides up in the zone, and he works off that pitch and a plus slider — not the 80 slider he used to have, but a plus one with above-average break in both planes and enough of a difference in spin-based direction that he can get left- and right-handed hitters out while barely using a third pitch.
When healthy, he gives the Yankees a second No. 1 starter to go with Gerrit Cole, and may help mitigate the uncertainty in innings they’ll get from the rest of the rotation.
That caveat is a huge one, though. Rodón missed most of 2017, part of 2018, nearly all of 2019 and 2020 (7 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened year), and the beginning of 2021 — the result of Tommy John surgery in 2019, arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in 2017, as well as “shoulder fatigue” in 2021. He’s held up for two full seasons of starting just twice in the big leagues, in 2022 and 2016. This past season was the first time he made 30 starts.
I don’t see how you can project health for a pitcher who’s missed this much time with multiple shoulder and elbow injuries, two of which required major surgeries. The Yankees might get three seasons’ worth of innings over six years from Rodón. They could get less, although that seems pessimistic even to me. I’m glad to see Rodón get paid, but I would have been out at four years and this kind of average annual value, let alone six. This is crazy money for someone with his history of arm trouble.
A new look at the possible Yankees rotation:
◽️ Gerrit Cole
◽️ Carlos Rodón
◽️ Nestor Cortes
◽️ Frankie Montas
◽️ Luis Severinohttps://t.co/LUIHGRKEjO pic.twitter.com/wV3DwqsZOx
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 16, 2022
Rodón does give the Yankees a real boost in their rotation, which is comprised of Cole, Nestor Cortes and a bunch of guys on whom you just can’t count for innings — Luis Severino and Clarke Schmidt have had trouble staying healthy, while Frankie Montas has had one healthy season as a starter and was awful after the Yankees traded for him in July. Rodón was also by far the best starter remaining in free agency, a mantle that now falls to Nathan Eovaldi, who was No. 30 on my free-agent rankings and made just 20 starts in 2022.
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The Giants had Rodón last year, and now they have a large void at the top of their rotation to fill since he’s not coming back. Logan Webb had a 4.7 rWAR last year and actually led the team in innings pitched, so you could argue they need someone behind him rather than better than him, although I think at this point that’s nitpicking — they need another quality starter, period, and unless Eovaldi regains his 2021 form, I don’t think that pitcher exists in free agency this year.
Alex Cobb is now 35, didn’t pitch enough to qualify for the ERA title last year, and is their second-best starter right now. They don’t have another 2-WAR pitcher on the roster, and everyone they have is old and/or oft-injured and/or not that good. After their huge investment in Carlos Correa, they’re still staring at a run-prevention deficit they need to address. I do think they should be asking the Twins about Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda if either is available, which wouldn’t give them a No. 1 or No. 2 starter but would be a clear improvement to their rotation for 2023.
(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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